Welcome to the third and final part of this chapter.submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]
Thank you all for the 100s of comments and upvotes - maybe this post will take us above 1,000 for this topic!
Keep any feedback or questions coming in the replies below.
Before you read this note, please start with Part I and then Part II so it hangs together and makes sense.
Squeezes and other risksWe are going to cover three common risks that traders face: events; squeezes, asymmetric bets.
EventsEconomic releases can cause large short-term volatility. The most famous is Non Farm Payrolls, which is the most widely watched measure of US employment levels and affects the price of many instruments.On an NFP announcement currencies like EURUSD might jump (or drop) 100 pips no problem.
This is fine and there are trading strategies that one may employ around this but the key thing is to be aware of these releases.You can find economic calendars all over the internet - including on this site - and you need only check if there are any major releases each day or week.
For example, if you are trading off some intraday chart and scalping a few pips here and there it would be highly sensible to go into a known data release flat as it is pure coin-toss and not the reason for your trading. It only takes five minutes each day to plan for the day ahead so do not get caught out by this. Many retail traders get stopped out on such events when price volatility is at its peak.
SqueezesShort squeezes bring a lot of danger and perhaps some opportunity.
The story of VW and Porsche is the best short squeeze ever. Throughout these articles we've used FX examples wherever possible but in this one instance the concept (which is also highly relevant in FX) is best illustrated with an historical lesson from a different asset class.
A short squeeze is when a participant ends up in a short position they are forced to cover. Especially when the rest of the market knows that this participant can be bullied into stopping out at terrible levels, provided the market can briefly drive the price into their pain zone.
There's a reason for the car, don't worry
Hedge funds had been shorting VW stock. However the amount of VW stock available to buy in the open market was actually quite limited. The local government owned a chunk and Porsche itself had bought and locked away around 30%. Neither of these would sell to the hedge-funds so a good amount of the stock was un-buyable at any price.
If you sell or short a stock you must be prepared to buy it back to go flat at some point.
To cut a long story short, Porsche bought a lot of call options on VW stock. These options gave them the right to purchase VW stock from banks at slightly above market price.
Eventually the banks who had sold these options realised there was no VW stock to go out and buy since the German government wouldn’t sell its allocation and Porsche wouldn’t either. If Porsche called in the options the banks were in trouble.
Porsche called in the options which forced the shorts to buy stock - at whatever price they could get it.
The price squeezed higher as those that were short got massively squeezed and stopped out. For one brief moment in 2008, VW was the world’s most valuable company. Shorts were burned hard.
Porsche apparently made $11.5 billion on the trade. The BBC described Porsche as “a hedge fund with a carmaker attached.”
If this all seems exotic then know that the same thing happens in FX all the time. If everyone in the market is talking about a key level in EURUSD being 1.2050 then you can bet the market will try to push through 1.2050 just to take out any short stops at that level. Whether it then rallies higher or fails and trades back lower is a different matter entirely.
This brings us on to the matter of crowded trades. We will look at positioning in more detail in the next section. Crowded trades are dangerous for PNL. If everyone believes EURUSD is going down and has already sold EURUSD then you run the risk of a short squeeze.
For additional selling to take place you need a very good reason for people to add to their position whereas a move in the other direction could force mass buying to cover their shorts.
A trading mentor when I worked at the investment bank once advised me:
Always think about which move would cause the maximum people the maximum pain. That move is precisely what you should be watching out for at all times.
Asymmetric lossesAlso known as picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. This risk has caught out many a retail trader. Sometimes it is referred to as a "negative skew" strategy.
Ideally what you are looking for is asymmetric risk trade set-ups: that is where the downside is clearly defined and smaller than the upside. What you want to avoid is the opposite.
A famous example of this going wrong was the Swiss National Bank de-peg in 2012.
The Swiss National Bank had said they would defend the price of EURCHF so that it did not go below 1.2. Many people believed it could never go below 1.2 due to this. Many retail traders therefore opted for a strategy that some describe as ‘picking up pennies in front of a steam-roller’.
They would would buy EURCHF above the peg level and hope for a tiny rally of several pips before selling them back and keep doing this repeatedly. Often they were highly leveraged at 100:1 so that they could amplify the profit of the tiny 5-10 pip rally.
Then this happened.
Something that changed FX markets forever
The SNB suddenly did the unthinkable. They stopped defending the price. CHF jumped and so EURCHF (the number of CHF per 1 EUR) dropped to new lows very fast. Clearly, this trade had horrific risk : reward asymmetry: you risked 30% to make 0.05%.
Other strategies like naively selling options have the same result. You win a small amount of money each day and then spectacularly blow up at some point down the line.
Market positioningWe have talked about short squeezes. But how do you know what the market position is? And should you care?
Let’s start with the first. You should definitely care.
Let’s imagine the entire market is exceptionally long EURUSD and positioning reaches extreme levels. This makes EURUSD very vulnerable.
To keep the price going higher EURUSD needs to attract fresh buy orders. If everyone is already long and has no room to add, what can incentivise people to keep buying? The news flow might be good. They may believe EURUSD goes higher. But they have already bought and have their maximum position on.
On the flip side, if there’s an unexpected event and EURUSD gaps lower you will have the entire market trying to exit the position at the same time. Like a herd of cows running through a single doorway. Messy.
We are going to look at this in more detail in a later chapter, where we discuss ‘carry’ trades. For now this TRYJPY chart might provide some idea of what a rush to the exits of a crowded position looks like.
A carry trade position clear-out in action
Knowing if the market is currently at extreme levels of long or short can therefore be helpful.
The CFTC makes available a weekly report, which details the overall positions of speculative traders “Non Commercial Traders” in some of the major futures products. This includes futures tied to deliverable FX pairs such as EURUSD as well as products such as gold. The report is called “CFTC Commitments of Traders” ("COT").
This is a great benchmark. It is far more representative of the overall market than the proprietary ones offered by retail brokers as it covers a far larger cross-section of the institutional market.
Generally market participants will not pay a lot of attention to commercial hedgers, which are also detailed in the report. This data is worth tracking but these folks are simply hedging real-world transactions rather than speculating so their activity is far less revealing and far more noisy.
You can find the data online for free and download it directly here.
Raw format is kinda hard to work with
However, many websites will chart this for you free of charge and you may find it more convenient to look at it that way. Just google “CFTC positioning charts”.
But you can easily get visualisations
You can visually spot extreme positioning. It is extremely powerful.
Bear in mind the reports come out Friday afternoon US time and the report is a snapshot up to the prior Tuesday. That means it is a lagged report - by the time it is released it is a few days out of date. For longer term trades where you hold positions for weeks this is of course still pretty helpful information.
As well as the absolute level (is the speculative market net long or short) you can also use this to pick up on changes in positioning.
For example if bad news comes out how much does the net short increase? If good news comes out, the market may remain net short but how much did they buy back?
A lot of traders ask themselves “Does the market have this trade on?” The positioning data is a good method for answering this. It provides a good finger on the pulse of the wider market sentiment and activity.
For example you might say: “There was lots of noise about the good employment numbers in the US. However, there wasn’t actually a lot of position change on the back of it. Maybe everyone who wants to buy already has. What would happen now if bad news came out?”
In general traders will be wary of entering a crowded position because it will be hard to attract additional buyers or sellers and there could be an aggressive exit.
If you want to enter a trade that is showing extreme levels of positioning you must think carefully about this dynamic.
Bet correlationRetail traders often drastically underestimate how correlated their bets are.
Through bitter experience, I have learned that a mistake in position correlation is the root of some of the most serious problems in trading. If you have eight highly correlated positions, then you are really trading one position that is eight times as large.
Bruce Kovner of hedge fund, Caxton Associates
For example, if you are trading a bunch of pairs against the USD you will end up with a simply huge USD exposure. A single USD-trigger can ruin all your bets. Your ideal scenario — and it isn’t always possible — would be to have a highly diversified portfolio of bets that do not move in tandem.
Look at this chart. Inverted USD index (DXY) is green. AUDUSD is orange. EURUSD is blue.
Chart from TradingView
So the whole thing is just one big USD trade! If you are long AUDUSD, long EURUSD, and short DXY you have three anti USD bets that are all likely to work or fail together.
The more diversified your portfolio of bets are, the more risk you can take on each.
There’s a really good video, explaining the benefits of diversification from Ray Dalio.
A systematic fund with access to an investable universe of 10,000 instruments has more opportunity to make a better risk-adjusted return than a trader who only focuses on three symbols. Diversification really is the closest thing to a free lunch in finance.
But let’s be pragmatic and realistic. Human retail traders don’t have capacity to run even one hundred bets at a time. More realistic would be an average of 2-3 trades on simultaneously. So what can be done?
The key thing is to start thinking about a portfolio of bets and what each new trade offers to your existing portfolio of risk. Will it diversify or amplify a current exposure?
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limitsOne common mistake is to get bored and restless and put on crap trades. This just means trades in which you have low conviction.
It is perfectly fine not to trade. If you feel like you do not understand the market at a particular point, simply choose not to trade.
Flat is a position.
Do not waste your bullets on rubbish trades. Only enter a trade when you have carefully considered it from all angles and feel good about the risk. This will make it far easier to hold onto the trade if it moves against you at any point. You actually believe in it.
Equally, you need to set monthly limits. A standard limit might be a 10% account balance stop per month. At that point you close all your positions immediately and stop trading till next month.
Be strict with yourself and walk away
Let’s assume you started the year with $100k and made 5% in January so enter Feb with $105k balance. Your stop is therefore 10% of $105k or $10.5k . If your account balance dips to $94.5k ($105k-$10.5k) then you stop yourself out and don’t resume trading till March the first.
Having monthly calendar breaks is nice for another reason. Say you made a load of money in January. You don’t want to start February feeling you are up 5% or it is too tempting to avoid trading all month and protect the existing win. Each month and each year should feel like a clean slate and an independent period.
Everyone has trading slumps. It is perfectly normal. It will definitely happen to you at some stage. The trick is to take a break and refocus. Conserve your capital by not trading a lot whilst you are on a losing streak. This period will be much harder for you emotionally and you’ll end up making suboptimal decisions. An enforced break will help you see the bigger picture.
Put in place a process before you start trading and then it’ll be easy to follow and will feel much less emotional. Remember: the market doesn’t care if you win or lose, it is nothing personal.
When your head has cooled and you feel calm you return the next month and begin the task of building back your account balance.
That's a wrap on risk managementThanks for taking time to read this three-part chapter on risk management. I hope you enjoyed it. Do comment in the replies if you have any questions or feedback.
Remember: the most important part of trading is not making money. It is not losing money. Always start with that principle. I hope these three notes have provided some food for thought on how you might approach risk management and are of practical use to you when trading. Avoiding mistakes is not a sexy tagline but it is an effective and reliable way to improve results.
Next up I will be writing about an exciting topic I think many traders should look at rather differently: news trading. Please follow on here to receive notifications and the broad outline is below.
News Trading Part I
Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
Thanks to everyone who responded to the previous pieces on risk management. We ended up with nearly 2,000 upvotes and I'm delighted so many of you found it useful.submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]
This time we're going to focus on a new area: reacting to and trading around news and fundamental developments.
A lot of people get this totally wrong and the main reason is that they trade the news at face value, without considering what the market had already priced in. If you've ever seen what you consider to be "good" or "better than forecast" news come out and yet been confused as the pair did nothing or moved in the opposite direction to expected, read on...
We are going to do this in two parts.
IntroductionKnowing how to use and benefit from the economic calendar is key for all traders - not just news traders.
In this chapter we are going to take a practical look at how to use the economic calendar. We are also going to look at how to interpret news using second order thinking.
The key concept is learning what has already been ‘priced in’ by the market so we can estimate how the market price might react to the new information.
Why use an economic calendarThe economic calendar contains all the scheduled economic releases for that day and week. Even if you purely trade based on technical analysis, you still must know what is in store.
Why? Three main reasons.
Firstly, releases can help provide direction. They create trends. For example if GBPUSD has been fluctuating aimlessly within a range and suddenly the Bank of England starts raising rates you better believe the British Pound will start to move. Big news events often start long-term trends which you can trade around.
Secondly, a lot of the volatility occurs around these events. This is because these events give the market new information. Prior to a big scheduled release like the US Non Farm Payrolls you might find no one wants to take a big position. After it is released the market may move violently and potentially not just in a single direction - often prices may overshoot and come back down. Even without a trend this volatility provides lots of trading opportunities for the day trader.
Finally, these releases can change trends. Going into a huge release because of a technical indicator makes little sense. Everything could reverse and stop you out in a moment. You need to be aware of which events are likely to influence the positions you have on so you can decide whether to keep the positions or flatten exposure before the binary event for which you have no edge.
Most traders will therefore ‘scan’ the calendar for the week ahead, noting what the big events are and when they will occur. Then you can focus on each day at a time.
Reading the economic calendar
Most calendars show events cut by trading day. Helpfully they adjust the time of each release to your own timezone. For example we can see that the Bank of Japan Interest Rate decision is happening at 4am local time for this particular London-based trader.
Note that some events do not happen at a specific time. Think of a Central Banker’s speech for example - this can go on for an hour. It is not like an economic statistic that gets released at a precise time. Clicking the finger emoji will open up additional information on each event.
Event importanceHow do you define importance? Well, some events are always unimportant. With the greatest of respect to Italian farmers, nobody cares about mundane releases like Italian farm productivity figures.
Other events always seem to be important. That means, markets consistently react to them and prices move. Interest rate decisions are an example of consistently high importance events.
So the Medium and High can be thought of as guides to how much each event typically affects markets. They are not perfect guides, however, as different events are more or less important depending on the circumstances.
For example, imagine the UK economy was undergoing a consumer-led recovery. The Central Bank has said it would raise interest rates (making GBPUSD move higher) if they feel the consumer is confident.
Consumer confidence data would suddenly become an extremely important event. At other times, when the Central Bank has not said it is focused on the consumer, this release might be near irrelevant.
Knowing what's priced inNext to each piece of economic data you can normally see three figures. Actual, Forecast, and Previous.
Once you understand that markets move based on the news vs expectations, you will be less confused by price action around events
This is a common misunderstanding. Say everyone is expecting ‘great’ economic data and it comes out as ‘good’. Does the price go up?
You might think it should. After all, the economic data was good. However, everyone expected it to be great and it was just … good. The great release was ‘priced in’ by the market already. Most likely the price will be disappointed and go down.
By priced in we simply mean that the market expected it and already bought or sold. The information was already in the price before the announcement.
Incidentally the official forecasts can be pretty stale and might not accurately capture what active traders in the market expect. See the following example.
An example of pricing inFor example, let’s say the market is focused on the number of Tesla deliveries. Analysts think it’ll be 100,000 this quarter. But Elon Musk tweets something that hints he’s really, really, really looking forward to the analyst call. Tesla’s price ticks higher after the tweet as traders put on positions, reflecting the sentiment that Tesla is likely to massively beat the 100,000. (This example is not a real one - it just serves to illustrate the concept.)
Tesla deliveries are up hugely vs last quarter ... but they are disappointing vs market expectations ... what do you think will happen to the stock?
On the day it turns out Tesla hit 101,000. A better than the officially forecasted result - sure - but only marginally. Way below what readers of Musk's twitter account might have thought. Disappointed traders may sell their longs and close out the positions. The stock might go down on ‘good’ results because the market had priced in something even better. (This example is not a real one - it just serves to illustrate the concept.)
SurveysIt can be a little hard to know what the market really expects. Often the published forecasts are stale and do not reflect what actual traders and investors are looking for.
One of the most effective ways is a simple survey of investors. Something like a Twitter poll like this one from CNBC is freely available and not a bad barometer.
CNBC, Bloomberg and other business TV stations often have polls on their Twitter accounts that let you know what others are expecting
Interest rates decisionsWe know that interest rates heavily affect currency prices.
For major interest rate decisions there’s a great tool on the CME’s website that you can use.
See the link for a demo
This gives you a % probability of each interest rate level, implied by traded prices in the bond futures market. For example, in the case above the market thinks there’s a 20% chance the Fed will cut rates to 75-100bp.
Obviously this is far more accurate than analyst estimates because it uses actual bond prices where market participants are directly taking risk and placing bets. It basically looks at what interest rate traders are willing to lend at just before/after the date of the central bank meeting to imply the odds that the market ascribes to a change on that date.
Always try to estimate what the market has priced in. That way you have some context for whether the release really was better or worse than expected.
Second order thinkingYou have to know what the market expects to try and guess how it’ll react. This is referred to by Howard Marks of Oaktree as second-level thinking. His explanation is so clear I am going to quote extensively.
It really is hard to improve on this clarity of thought:
First-level thinking is simplistic and superficial, and just about everyone can do it (a bad sign for anything involving an attempt at superiority). All the first-level thinker needs is an opinion about the future, as in “The outlook for the company is favorable, meaning the stock will go up.” Second-level thinking is deep, complex and convoluted.
He explains first-level thinking:
The first-level thinker simply looks for the highest quality company, the best product, the fastest earnings growth or the lowest p/e ratio. He’s ignorant of the very existence of a second level at which to think, and of the need to pursue it.
The above describes the guy who sees a 101,000 result and buys Tesla stock because - hey, this beat expectations. Marks goes on to describe second-level thinking:
The second-level thinker goes through a much more complex process when thinking about buying an asset. Is it good? Do others think it’s as good as I think it is? Is it really as good as I think it is? Is it as good as others think it is? Is it as good as others think others think it is? How will it change? How do others think it will change? How is it priced given: its current condition; how do I think its conditions will change; how others think it will change; and how others think others think it will change? And that’s just the beginning. No, this isn’t easy.
In this version of events you are always thinking about the market’s response to Tesla results.
What do you think they’ll announce? What has the market priced in? Is Musk reliable? Are the people who bought because of his tweet likely to hold on if he disappoints or exit immediately? If it goes up at which price will they take profit? How big a number is now considered ‘wow’ by the market?
As Marks says: not easy. However, you need to start getting into the habit of thinking like this if you want to beat the market. You can make gameplans in advance for various scenarios.
Here are some examples from Marks to illustrate the difference between first order and second order thinking.
Some further examples
Trying to react fast to headlines is impossible in today’s market of ultra fast computers. You will never win on speed. Therefore you have to out-think the average participant.
Coming up in part IINow that we have a basic understanding of concepts such as expectations and what the market has priced in, we can look at some interesting trading techniques and tools.
Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
Thanks for all the upvotes and comments on the previous pieces:submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]
Before you understand the core concepts of pricing in and second order thinking, price reactions to events can seem mystifying at times
We'll add one thought-provoking quote. Keynes (that rare economist who also managed institutional money) offered this analogy. He compared selecting investments to a beauty contest in which newspaper readers would write in with their votes and win a prize if their votes most closely matched the six most popularly selected women across all readers:
It is not a case of choosing those (faces) which, to the best of one’s judgment, are really the prettiest, nor even those which average opinions genuinely thinks the prettiest. We have reached the third degree where we devote our intelligences to anticipating what average opinion expects the average opinion to be.
Trading is no different. You are trying to anticipate how other traders will react to news and how that will move prices. Perhaps you disagree with their reaction. Still, if you can anticipate what it will be you would be sensible to act upon it. Don't forget: meanwhile they are also trying to anticipate what you and everyone else will do.
Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releasesThe majority of releases are quantitative. All that means is there’s some number. Like unemployment figures or GDP.
Historic results provide interesting context. We are looking below the Australian unemployment rate which is released monthly. If you plot it out a few years back you can spot a clear trend, which got massively reversed. Knowing this trend gives you additional information when the figure is released. In the same way prices can trend so do economic data.
A great resource that's totally free to use
This makes sense: if for example things are getting steadily better in the economy you’d expect to see unemployment steadily going down.
Knowing the trend and how much noise there is in the data gives you an informational edge over lazy traders.
For example, when we see the spike above 6% on the above you’d instantly know it was crazy and a huge trading opportunity since a) the fluctuations month on month are normally tiny and b) it is a huge reversal of the long-term trend.
Would all the other AUDUSD traders know and react proportionately? If not and yet they still trade, their laziness may be an opportunity for more informed traders to make some money.
Tradingeconomics.com offers really high quality analysis. You can see all the major indicators for each country. Clicking them brings up their history as well as an explanation of what they show.
For example, here’s German Consumer Confidence.
There are also qualitative events. Normally these are speeches by Central Bankers.
There are whole blogs dedicated to closely reading such texts and looking for subtle changes in direction or opinion on the economy. Stuff like how often does the phrase "in a good place" come up when the Chair of the Fed speaks. It is pretty dry stuff. Yet these are leading indicators of how each member may vote to set interest rates. Ed Yardeni is the go-to guy on central banks.
Data surprise indexThe other thing you might look at is something investment banks produce for their customers. A data surprise index. I am not sure if these are available in retail land - there's no reason they shouldn't be but the economic calendars online are very basic.
You’ll remember we talked about data not being good or bad of itself but good or bad relative to what was expected. These indices measure this difference.
If results are consistently better than analysts expect then you’ll see a positive number. If they are consistently worse than analysts expect a negative number. You can see they tend to swing from positive to negative.
Mean reversion at its best! Data surprise indices measure how much better or worse data came in vs forecast
There are many theories for this but in general people consider that analysts herd around the consensus. They are scared to be outliers and look ‘wrong’ or ‘stupid’ so they instead place estimates close to the pack of their peers.
When economic conditions change they may therefore be slow to update. When they are wrong consistently - say too bearish - they eventually flip the other way and become too bullish.
These charts can be interesting to give you an idea of how the recent data releases have been versus market expectations. You may try to spot the turning points in macroeconomic data that drive long term currency prices and trends.
Using recent events to predict future reactionsThe market reaction function is the most important thing on an economic calendar in many ways. It means: what will happen to the price if the data is better or worse than the market expects?
That seems easy to answer but it is not.
Consider the example of consumer confidence we had earlier.
One clue is to look at what happened to the price of risk assets at the last event.
For example, let’s say we looked at unemployment and it came in a lot worse than forecast last month. What happened to the S&P back then?
2% drop last time on a 'worse than expected' number ... so it it is 'better than expected' best guess is we rally 2% higher
So this tells us that - at least for our most recent event - the S&P moved 2% lower on a far worse than expected number. This gives us some guidance as to what it might do next time and the direction. Bad number = lower S&P. For a huge surprise 2% is the size of move we’d expect.
Again - this is a real limitation of online calendars. They should show next to the historic results (expected/actual) the reaction of various instruments.
Buy the rumour, sell the factA final example of an unpredictable reaction relates to the old rule of ‘Buy the rumour, sell the fact.’ This captures the tendency for markets to anticipate events and then reverse when they occur.
Buy the rumour, sell the fact
In short: people take profit and close their positions when what they expected to happen is confirmed.
So we have to decide which driver is most important to the market at any point in time. You obviously cannot ask every participant. The best way to do it is to look at what happened recently. Look at the price action during recent releases and you will get a feel for how much the market moves and in which direction.
Trimming or taking off positionsOne thing to note is that events sometimes give smart participants information about positioning. This is because many traders take off or reduce positions ahead of big news events for risk management purposes.
Imagine we see GBPUSD rises in the hour before GDP release. That probably indicates the market is short and has taken off / flattened its positions.
The price action before an event can tell you about speculative positioning
If GDP is merely in line with expectations those same people are likely to add back their positions. They avoided a potential banana skin. This is why sometimes the market moves on an event that seemingly was bang on consensus.
But you have learned something. The speculative market is short and may prove vulnerable to a squeeze.
Two kinds of reversalsFairly often you’ll see the market move in one direction on a release then turn around and go the other way.
These are known as reversals. Traders will often ‘fade’ a move, meaning bet against it and expect it to reverse.
Logical reversalsSometimes this happens when the data looks good at first glance but the details don’t support it.
For example, say the headline is very bullish on German manufacturing numbers but then a minute later it becomes clear the company who releases the data has changed methodology or believes the number is driven by a one-off event. Or maybe the headline number is positive but buried in the detail there is a very negative revision to previous numbers.
Fading the initial spike is one way to trade news. Try looking at what the price action is one minute after the event and thirty minutes afterwards on historic releases.
Some reversals don't make sense
Sometimes a reversal happens for seemingly no fundamental reason. Say you get clearly positive news that is better than anyone expects. There are no caveats to the positive number. Yet the price briefly spikes up and then falls hard. What on earth?
This is a pure supply and demand thing. Even on bullish news the market cannot sustain a rally. The market is telling you it wants to sell this asset. Try not to get in its way.
Some key releasesAs we have already discussed, different releases are important at different times. However, we’ll look at some consistently important ones in this final section.
Interest rates decisionsThese can sometimes be unscheduled. However, normally the decisions are announced monthly. The exact process varies for each central bank. Typically there’s a headline decision e.g. maintain 0.75% rate.
You may also see “minutes” of the meeting in which the decision was reached and a vote tally e.g. 7 for maintain, 2 for lower rates. These are always top-tier data releases and have capacity to move the currency a lot.
A hawkish central bank (higher rates) will tend to move a currency higher whilst a dovish central bank (lower rates) will tend to move a currency lower.
A central banker speaking is always a big event
Non farm payrollsThese are released once per month. This is another top-tier release that will move all USD pairs as well as equities.
There are three numbers:
In general a positive response should move the USD higher but check recent price action.
Other countries each have their own unemployment data releases but this is the single most important release.
SurveysThere are various types of surveys: consumer confidence; house price expectations; purchasing managers index etc.
Each one basically asks a group of people if they expect to make more purchases or activity in their area of expertise to rise. There are so many we won’t go into each one here.
A really useful tool is the tradingeconomics.com economic indicators for each country. You can see all the major indicators and an explanation of each plus the historic results.
GDPGross Domestic Product is another big release. It is a measure of how much a country’s economy is growing.
In general the market focuses more on ‘advance’ GDP forecasts more than ‘final’ numbers, which are often released at the same time.
This is because the final figures are accurate but by the time they come around the market has already seen all the inputs. The advance figure tends to be less accurate but incorporates new information that the market may not have known before the release.
In general a strong GDP number is good for the domestic currency.
InflationCountries tend to release measures of inflation (increase in prices) each month. These releases are important mainly because they may influence the future decisions of the central bank, when setting the interest rate.
See the FX fundamentals section for more details.
Industrial dataThings like factory orders or or inventory levels. These can provide a leading indicator of the strength of the economy.
These numbers can be extremely volatile. This is because a one-off large order can drive the numbers well outside usual levels.
Pay careful attention to previous releases so you have a sense of how noisy each release is and what kind of moves might be expected.
CommentsOften there is really good stuff in the comments/replies. Check out 'squitstoomuch' for some excellent observations on why some news sources are noisy but early (think: Twitter, ZeroHedge). The Softbank story is a good recent example: was in ZeroHedge a day before the FT but the market moved on the FT. Also an interesting comment on mistakes, which definitely happen on breaking news, and can cause massive reversals.
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FOREX StrategiesWhat are FOREX Strategies?
You may have noticed that most of people confuse the terminology and refer to FOREX Strategies in the wrong way. There are methodologies, systems, strategies, and techniques. The most effective methodology is Price Language (Trend Tracking). Combined with a correct reading of mass psychology presented by the charts.
We know that in the Stock Markets there are thousands of strategies. FOREX, like the rest of the markets, presents you with the opportunity to apply similar strategies to win consistently. Taking advantage of repetitive psychological patterns.
First, the Price Language methodology has created great fortunes in FOREX, and the next fortune may be yours. But this methodology must be implemented within a framework of advanced concepts of Markets. Without forgetting the basics. And working hard day by day.
Second, a strategy is a set of parameters and techniques that together give you the advantage to act in any situation. Thus for example in war, generals have attack strategies and counterattack strategies.
FOREX strategies alike are entry strategies and exit strategies. All beginners should know these FOREX strategies for beginners. That way you will get a general idea of the game and understand that trading is a war against the Market and its Specialists. Only applying FOREX strategies revealed by the same Specialists and using their own techniques,
... you can survive in this war.
Do not fall into the trap of the many "systems" and "methods" that are offered on the internet about operating in the FOREX Market. They just don't work in the long run. They are strategies based on indicators for the most part. Using rigid parameters. That if they can work and give profitability during a certain period of time, they will always reach a breaking point when the market changes its dynamics.
Instead, take advantage of your precious time and learn the Language of Price or Price Action.
The Language methodology will allow you to adapt to each new phase of the Market. If you combine this knowledge with the appropriate psychological concepts, you can live comfortably from speculation in FOREX.
Forex Trading Strategies Reddit - Basic FOREX StrategiesYou have two basic FOREX strategies, one entry, and one exit. Both follow a general strategy that helps you capitalize on the collective behaviors of the Market. That is, of the total of participating speculators.
This behavior causes the formation of cycles that repeat over and over again. Driven by the basic emotions (uncertainty, greed, and panic) of the speculators involved that can be taken advantage of with the aforementioned FOREX strategies. Specialists identify these emotions in the order flow and capitalize on these events every hour, every day, and every month.
Basic FOREX Strategies - The Price Cycle
These repetitive cycles consist of 4 phases:
The two trends can be easily identified by their notorious breakdown. And the two areas of uncertainty (accumulation and distribution), due to their notorious range trajectories.
This general behavior determines the core of our FOREX strategies.
You buy when the price of a pair has broken and has come out of one of its congestion formations (accumulation or distribution). You implement one of the Forex strategies, in this case, the entry one.
The multi-time technique will help you find the point of least risk when entering your initial buy or sell order. In the same way and using the same strategy but this time to close your position, the multiple timing technique will also show you how to close your operation obtaining the highest possible profit.
The most consistent way to extract profits in the market is by trading the start of trends within a cycle . Once confirmed by their respective breaks from the areas of uncertainty. This is the mother of all FOREX strategies . And in a market that operates 24 hours, we have more frequent cycles and therefore more opportunities.
Forex Trading Strategies Reddit - Advanced Forex StrategiesThere are many advanced FOREX strategies that are generally used by professional speculators working for large financial firms.
Among these firms are banks, Investment Fund managers and Hedge Fund managers. The latter is an investment modality similar to Investment Funds, with the difference that Hedge Funds use more complex investment strategies. Its operations are more oriented to aggressive speculations in the short and medium-term.
Among the most common strategies is hedging (hedging), carry trade, automated systems based on quantum mathematics. And a large number of combinations between the different option strategies.
The Carry TradeThe central idea of Carry Trade is to buy a pair in which the base currency has a considerably higher interest rate than the quoted currency. To earn the difference in rates regardless of whether the price of the pair rises or falls.
Suppose we buy a $ 100,000 lot of AUDJPY, which according to the rates on the chart would turn out to be the ideal instrument in this example to use the Forex carry trade strategy.
As our capital is in US dollars we have to assume for our example, the following quotes necessary to perform the place calculations:
AUD / JPY = 80.00 USD / JPY = 85.00
What happens internally in your broker is this.
The great advantage of carry trade FOREX strategies is that this percentage profit is applied to the $ 100,000 of the standard lot; the broker transfers all of the profit to you, even if you only contributed $ 1,000. On the other hand, if you carry out the inverse of this operation, this benefit of the Forex carry trade becomes a cost (swap), and you assume it completely.
Remember that FOREX carry trade strategies are recommended for pairs with considerable interest rate differences, such as the one we have just seen in our example.
These FOREX strategies should also not be used in isolation. The idea is that through technical analysis you identify when would be the ideal time to enter the market using your carry trade Forex strategy and multiply your profits considerably.
What FOREX Strategies Do Hedge Funds Use?The FOREX strategies used by large fund managers do not constitute an advantage in terms of percentage results for them, nor do they constitute a competitive disadvantage for you.
The vast majority of them fail because of their big egos. In fact, there was a firm made up of great financial geniuses, including 2 winners of the Nobel Prize in Economics, who developed a strategy based on quantum mathematical calculations.
With an initial base capital of about 3 billion dollars, and after 3 successful years obtaining annual returns of over 40%, the firm Long-Term Capital Management, begins its fourth year with losses. To counteract these losses the geniuses decide to multiply the initial capital several times, while the losses continued.
The year closed with the bankruptcy of the fund, and with a total accumulated loss of 1 trillion dollars, due to the great leverage used. And all for not admitting that the FOREX Strategies of Long Term Capital Management were not in line with the dynamics of the Market.
There are an overwhelming number of opportunities in the stock markets to make money interpreting the Language of Price.
You don't need to use complex "advanced" strategies that have been created to handle hundreds or billions of dollars.
The reasons for using these FOREX strategies are very different from what a "retail trader" pursues with his small speculation business.
As you can see, you should not worry about wanting to integrate any of these advanced strategies into your arsenal. They are only beneficial for managing hundreds or billions of dollars, where the return parameters are very different when you handle small amounts of capital.
Do not worry about collecting hundreds of free FOREX strategies that circulate on the internet, that great accumulation of mediocre information will only serve to confuse you and waste your valuable time.
Spend that time learning Price Action,
… And you will always be one step behind the Specialists, identifying each new Market condition, and anticipating the vast majority of reversals of all prices.
Ironically, the most successful fund managers indicate that their most profitable trades are those based on the basic trend-following strategies of the Price Language. The same ones that you will learn in this Free Course.
Dedicate yourself to perfecting them and believe me you won't need anything else. As long as you have good risk management, taking into consideration the following points ...
Styles of Investments in FOREXThe Investment FOREX long term is not recommended for small investors like you and me. If we take into account the term investing literally as large investors do who buy a financial product today to sell it years later.
We both have a better niche in the short and medium-term.
You may have noticed that the big multi-year trends in the Forex Market do exist. But minor swings within a big trend are usually very wide.
These minor movements allow us to easily double and triple the annual return of the big general trend, motivating most traders to speculate in the short and medium-term.
These minor oscillations or trends that occur within the large multi-year trends owe their occurrence mainly to two reasons.
First, the FOREX Market presents 3 sessions a day each in different cities of the world with different time zones (Asia, Europe, and America). This causes more frequent trend changes than in the rest of the stock markets.
Second, the purpose for which it was created also plays a role. The modern Foreign Exchange Market, since its inception in 1972, was conceived by the global financial system as a tool for speculation. To obtain benefits in the short and medium-term (from several days to 1 year).
These two points are basically the reasons why we observe the immense speed with which the FOREX market changes trends.
For example, for those who live in America, in the early morning (Europe) the EURUSD pair may be on the rise, in the morning or afternoon (America) it may be down, and then finally at night (Asia) it may return to the rise.
Define your Own Style for your FOREX InvestmentsOne of the first decisions you will have to make is to choose your style as a trader or investor.
There are 4 types of well-defined styles.
Most professional traders tend to have multiple styles, although they always identify with one primary style for their FOREX investments. Study the characteristics of the 4 main styles to make your investments in FOREX :
1. Long Term: recommended for anyone who is going to enter the market for the first time and who can dedicate a minimum of one hour per month to their investments in Forex. The period of an open position ranges from 1 year to 5 years.
2. Medium Term: recommended for anyone who is going to enter the market for the first time and who can dedicate a minimum of one hour per week to their investments in Forex. The period of an open position ranges from 1 month to 1 year.
3. Short Term: recommended for anyone who is going to enter the market for the first time, or who already has a certain time operating in the long and medium-term, showing constant profits, and who can dedicate a minimum of one hour per day to your investments in FOREX. The period of an open position ranges from 1 day to 1 month.
4. Intraday : recommended only for people with a fairly solid earnings record in the short term, and with a capital greater than $ 50,000. As we have noted, this option constitutes a full-time job.
People who start investing in FOREX , should start executing short-term (weeks) and medium-term (months) transactions only, and not pay attention to intraday oscillations (day trading).
If you are interested in being an intraday speculator, I recommend that you first exhaust at least a year doing operations in the short and medium-term to assimilate the correct strategies and to develop the necessary mentality to carry out this work.
The second option would be to participate in some kind of intensive training.
I remind you that self-educating is almost impossible in speculation. You are likely to accumulate a lot of knowledge by reading books and attending courses. But you will probably never learn to make money with all the incomplete "systems" circulating on the internet.
Mistakes to Avoid When Looking for Your StyleMany people who are new to FOREX investments make the mistake of combining these styles, which is a key to failure.
I recommend that if you are not getting the results you expected by adopting one of these styles, do not try to change it. The problem sure is not in the style, but in your strategies or in your psychology.
A successful investor is able to make a profit in any longer trading time than he is used to. I explain. If you are already a profitable operator in the short term, it is very likely that you will also be profitable in the medium and long term,
… As long as you can interpret the Language of Price or Price Action.
In the opposite case, the same would not happen. If you were a medium-term trader, you would need time to adjust to the intraday. The reality is that long, medium and short term traders have very similar personalities. The intraday trader is completely different.
The Myth of the Intraday in Investments in FOREXIf you are already successful in the short, medium and long term, you will notice that the sacrifice and the hours necessary in front of the computer to operate intraday is much greater. The intraday style will be useful to increase your account if it is less than USD $ 100,000 in a very short time in exchange for 8 to 12 hours a day of hard work but ...
You must first develop the necessary skills to operate the intraday.
The ideal is to combine all the styles to get more out of the Market and carry out more effective transactions and have a diversification in your investments in FOREX.
There are intraday traders that are very successful, but the reality is that there are very few in the world that make a profit year after year. If you want to become an intraday, you just have to prepare yourself properly through intensive training.
Otherwise, I recommend that you don't even think about educating yourself to adopt the intraday style. It is not necessary to go against a probability of failure greater than 99%. Unless
... your ego is greater than your common sense.
The main reason why this style of investments in FOREX is not recommended for the vast majority of us "retail investors" (the official term "retail traders"), is the high operational cost.
The real commissions in this market range between $ 2.0 and $ 2.50 for each lot of 100,000 virtual units. This means that a complete operation (opening and closing) is approximately $ 5.00, for each standard lot traded ($ 100,000 virtual).
Another fundamental reason is the advent of robotic traders (HFT = High-Frequency Trading), which tend to manipulate the market in the shorter intraday swings. Please do not confuse HFTs with automated systems that we find daily on the internet, and that can be purchased for a few hundred dollars and often for free on FOREX forums / groups.
These HFTs to which I refer, they are effective. They cost millions of dollars and have been developed by the large Wall Street financial firms to manage their investments in FOREX.
The reality of the intraday trader is that you execute orders for large lots at the same time, to profit from the smallest movements in the market. It is an activity based on reflexes. The slightest oversight or distraction can turn into a catastrophe for your FOREX investments.
I recommend that you start investing in FOREX using slow time periods such as H4 or Daily. For some reason, all Goldman Sachs intraday FOREX investments are made with algorithms.
Finally…To choose your style as a trader and manage your investments in FOREX, first determine what your degree of experience is, analyze the points mentioned below and the rest you will discover when you execute your first operations.
The points that will affect your decision are:
And I hope you are one of those who get up over and over again. The next lesson will boost your confidence when you discover the main reason that moves currencies ...
Fundamental Analysis in Forex Trading RedditThe fundamental analysis in Forex is used mostly by long-term investors. Players as we saw in the styles of operators, start a negotiation today, to close it years later.
I always emphasize the importance that the mass media give to this type of analysis to distract the great mass of participants.
It is all part of a great mass psychological manipulation. For centuries the ignorance of the masses has been organized before the great movements begin.
The important news are the macroeconomic reports published by the Central Banks and other government agencies destined for this work. All reports are made up. 99% of them are corrected months later.
These events are tools to justify fundamental analysis and price cleaning movements. Any silly headline does the job. With this, it is possible to absorb most of the existing liquidity, before the new trend phase is projected.
Reaction!Except in rare situations, the result of an economic report of the fundamental analysis is generally already assimilated in the graph. In most cases, there are financial institutions that already have access to this information and are organizing and carrying out their operations in advance.
The phrase buy the rumor and sell the news is a very old adage on Wall Street. And its meaning contains what we have just explained. For the investor who can interpret the Language of Price, fundamental analysis is of little importance. Well, in general, their disclosure does not indicate that you have to take any action in your open trades , as long as your entry strategy provides you with a good support cushion.
This reality of fundamental analysis causes a lot of confusion for investors who lack in-depth knowledge of the forex market.
Macroeconomic DataThe data published in these events is irrelevant. Both for speculators and for the people in general. They are false. They lack reliability.
The price can go up or down with the same result of the data. The main ones are:
- Interest Rates - GDP (gross domestic product) - CPI (inflation) - ISM (manufacturing index) - NFP (payroll) - Double Deficits (deficit = fiscal + balance of payments)
If you are initiated, I recommend you avoid operating near these events. It is only a matter of having the time pending. Use the economic calendar for Fundamental Analysis of Forex Factory.
There is a probabilistic advantage in operating these fundamental analysis events. But it takes preparation, experience, and practice. They represent a way of diversifying in the general operation of a speculator.
The Uncertainty of Fundamental AnalysisOn many occasions after the disclosure of an economic report, the price movement of the currency pair that is going to be affected tends to move in the opposite direction to the logic of the report.
I show you an example of a fundamental analysis report. Imagine that the EUR / USD pair is trading at 1.2500, and the FED (US Federal Reserve) issues a statement announcing that it has just raised inter-bank interest rates from 0.25 points to 0.75 points. Very positive news for the US dollar that logically implies an appreciation of the currency and consequently an instantaneous collapse of the EUR / USD pair (up the dollar and down the euro)
However, minutes after the release of said fundamental analysis report, the pair after effectively collapsing to 1.2400, returns and returns to its levels prior to the report (1.2500). This situation is very common , but it is not so easy to identify it when it is occurring, but after the damage is done.
Traps like these devour the accounts of beginners who approach the market with little experience, with weak strategies, and especially with very little experience.
That is why I reiterate that you forget the fundamental analysis for now. Just keep in mind when operating, that there is no publication scheduled nearby. Just check the economic calendar for the day and forget about the numbers. Let the economists mess around with the data.
FOREX Market CorrelationThe Forex market correlation exists between pairs with similar "base" currencies and not always under the same circumstances. The correlation in the Forex market that is most followed and that has the greatest impact on fundamental analysis is that of the US dollar (USD).
The USD is the most traded monetary unit with a volume greater than 80% with respect to the rest of the currencies. This fact determines why their correlation is the most important, the most followed, and perhaps the only one worth following in the fundamental macro analysis.
The 7 major pairs are usually in sync . These 7 pairs all include the USD and present a fundamental analysis correlation almost 75% of the time. Influencing the rest of the currency pairs.
Advantages of the FOREX Market CorrelationIn the fundamental analysis the most basic FOREX correlation is the following. When the USD appreciates, the USD / CAD, USD / CHF, and USD / JPY pairs tend to go up in price. This indicates that the Canadian dollar (CAD), the Swiss franc (CHF), and the Japanese yen (JPY) are losing value against the USD.
We must bear in mind that this correlation does not occur 100% of the time. In fact, the JPY generally tends to move in the opposite direction , since in recent decades this currency has been used as a source of financing to invest in other financial instruments.
On the other side is the FOREX market correlation that generates a movement almost in unison in the other 4 major pairs EUR / USD, GBP / USD, AUD / USD, and NZD / USD. These tend to fall in price, homologous the appreciation of the USD. But not always.
In this case the fundamental analysis correlation works most of the time, between 65 and 85% of the time. Small differences are noted in the extent that each of these pairs experiences.
There is also a correlation in the secondary FOREX market, where the pairs of all currencies that do not include the USD participate, but I recommend you not to waste time on them for now. There are more important things about the Language of Price to know first.
FOREX Commodity CorrelationIn this part I will explain to you in a basic way the Correlation Commodities - FOREX of the fundamental analysis.
There are three currencies that have a direct correlation with commodities. They are usually called: "COMDOLLS" which is short for "Commodities Dollars" (Commodities Dollars), since all three obey the dollar denomination. These are:
- The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) - The Australian Dollar (AUD) - The Canadian Dollar (CAD)
These three currencies make up the group of the 8 largest together with the euro, the pound, the yen, the franc and the US dollar. Together, they merge to produce the major pairs traded in the FOREX Foreign Exchange Market.
The FOREX Commodity Correlation has an affinity in most cases greater than 75%. And each of them has its different raw material of correlation. You will notice that the NZD and the AUD are two currencies that act practically in unison. Both present minimal discrepancies in their fluctuations in the short, medium and long term.
This is mainly because their economies are very similar and their economic and fiscal policies are too. Their main production items also show great similarities, despite the fact that the Australian economy is much larger than the New Zealand economy.
The raw materials that follow the movement of the AUD are mainly gold and copper. If you put the history of these three quotes during the last decade of the year 2,000 together on the same chart, you will notice a very similar upward movement between the three quotes. Pure correlation of fundamental analysis.
This strong correlation with commodities in the metals area for the AUD has provided Australia with an economic advantage enviable over the other major powers that have seen their currencies devalue sharply against the AUD. At the same time, they experience a constant decrease in the purchasing power of their citizens.
The NZD maintains a correlation with raw materials related to agriculture and livestock, mainly including milk and its derivatives. It is one of the countries that dominates the world export of these economic items, and also has important exports of metals , although in smaller quantities than Australia.
Finally, you have a correlation with raw materials in the energy area. For historical reasons the CAD, which is not the largest oil producer in the world, but an important supplier to the largest consumer that is the US, has seen its currency oscillate in line with oil prices.
To make long-term investments in the Foreign Exchange Market, it is necessary to take into consideration at least one Commodity Correlation - FOREX in your fundamental analysis.
Forex Technical Analysis RedditThe technical analysis is the methodology that interprets the movements of the price. Specialists look for liquidity to fund their business. The repetition of the strategies used by the specialists in their work generate repetitive patterns.
If you were an analyst, you would develop the visual ability to identify such patterns on a graph. If you were a programmer you would quantify them mathematically using complex formulas.
And if you could learn to interpret the Language of Price, you would have the ability to anticipate 90% of all movements that occur on a chart. And in this business, anticipating is what will make you money.
Market prices are reflected and framed on a horizontal time axis and a vertical price axis. Prices go up or down according to the aggressiveness of the participating operators. In an efficient or balanced market these oscillations should be imperceptible.
But in reality this is not the case, since the Market works thanks to the digital printing of hundreds of billions of units of paper money systematically distributed by the Central Banks through the banking system. These resources serve as a tool to manipulate 100% of the movements that occur in the FOREX Market.
Are you looking for Technical Indicators? All technical indicators were created from the 70's. How do you think that for more than 200 years the speculators of the past accumulated great wealth?
With the Language of Price. The best timing is given by the price itself. Indicator-generated entry signals usually occur at the wrong time.
The basis of technical analysis is human psychology. Unfortunately, human beings are not perfect and are loaded with emotions that dominate their behavior in similar situations, creating repetitive and highly predictable behavior when it occurs in masses.
The study of technical analysis through indicators and subjective training, originates and shapes the collective thinking on which all the traps that specialists execute every day to maintain their business are designed. If the majority won, the Market would cease to exist.
Although you already know that the patterns are not generated by the masses , but the repetitive behavior of the Specialists in the face of the action response of the masses. It is very easy for speculaists, because they can see everyone's orders in their books.
And they also exert a great influence on the decisions of the masses through the mass media. It is what I call the war between the Egg and the Stone , if you hit me you win and if I hit you also you win.
The Deception of Modern Technical AnalysisThrough the centuries thousands of people have been able to extract great benefits from the financial markets by applying the basic strategies of technical analysis and the psychology of the Price Language.
More than 200 years ago when the markets began to operate officially, fundamental analysis predominated, which was only used by large financial institutions. As this analysis tool began to become popular, these institutions began to apply the strategies of technical analysis.
In recent decades and with the massification of internet technology, technical analysis has begun to be handled by anyone who has a computer with internet access. The same financial institutions, which have been present for more than a century and as a result of this overcrowding , establish a strategy to confuse and misinform about the true strategies of technical analysis.
This has been accomplished in the following manner. Currently there are hundreds, if not thousands of technical indicators that have been developed by so-called "gurus" of technical analysis and that sell their magic indicators packed in a "system" or "method" that usually cost thousands of dollars, or simply with the publication of a book with which they generate large profits. Double benefit.
The aim is to confuse the initiates in speculation and create the collective mentality that will originate the same behaviors over and over again. About 95% of these new entrants completely lose all the capital they invest in their early stages as investors.
Leaving them with a negative experience and creating the idea and the image that financial markets are an exclusive area for geniuses with high academic levels and that only they can produce returns in the markets year after year.
The initiate, having lost all his original capital, turns to these “gurus” for help and teachings. You spend more capital on the products they offer you and the cycle repeats itself . Obviously, the vast majority do not relapse and completely forget to re-engage in the stock markets.
I hope you have not been a victim of this drama.
Now I will show you the simplicity of a FOREX technical analysis , without the need to resort to any indicator as a tool to determine an effective entry or exit strategy when planning your operations.
The Price CyclePreviously you studied in the FOREX strategies lesson, that the typical price cycle when it is reflected in a graph, presents four very specific phases and very easy to identify if you perform a technical analysis with common sense . These are:
You will be surprised by the simplicity with which thousands of people around the world and over the centuries have accumulated large sums of money by drawing a few simple lines and applying responsible risk management with their capital.
How to Identify Trends?Being able to determine the trend phases within the price cycle is the essence of technical analysis since it is these two phases that provide you with the probabilistic advantage you need to operate in the markets and obtain constant returns.
In the most plain and simple language, in the world of technical analysis, there are only two types of formations: trends and ranges.
The trends, in turn, can be bullish if they go up, or bearish if they go down. The ranges, on the other hand, can be accumulation if they are at the beginning of the cycle, or distribution if they are in the high part of the cycle. As I had indicated in the topic of FOREX strategies when describing the price cycle.
This sounds more like a play on words, but I will show you the practical definition to simplify your life and then you will apply these definitions on the graph so that everything makes more sense to you.
Some key points from the graph:
The Common Sense, The Less Common of SensesThe central idea of technical analysis consists in determining the price situation of a market, that is, in which phase of the pattern of its cycle it is currently conjugated with the collective thinking of the masses and the possible traps that the market would have prepared to remove. the capital at stake by the public.
To carry out a precise technical analysis, you will use the support and resistance lines, which can be static (horizontal) or dynamic (projecting an angle with respect to the horizontal axis).
Your common sense prevails here.
If you show a 10-year-old a chart, they will be able to tell you if the price is going up or down. You will most likely have no idea how to draw the lines, but you will be able to establish the general trend. Simply using your common sense.
By introducing indicators and other gadgets , the simplicity and effectiveness of the technical analysis created by your common sense evaporates.
The following graph conceptually shows you all the possible situations in which you could draw these lines to carry out your technical analysis of the place. You can clearly observe a downtrend delimited by its dynamic trend line and an uptrend on the right side with its respective dynamic delimitation.
Forex Charts AnalysisI want to remind you that the formations or patterns that develop on the charts (triangles, wedges, pennants, boxes, etc.) only work to execute trades that have initially been confirmed by the static support and resistance lines and to read the collective thinking of the masses.
Chart formations work, but you must know the Language of Price to determine when the Specialists will exploit a chartist figure, or when they will allow it to run. In fact, you will learn with the Language that you can operate a chart figure in any direction.
Much of the "mentalization" that the masses receive is to believe that the figures are made to be respected. Which is an inefficient way of working. Simply because you could wait days or months for a perfect chart figure to occur in order to perform a reliable trade. When in fact there are dozens every day.
Japanese CandlesOf all the tools you have to carry out technical analysis, perhaps the best known and most popular is the Japanese technique of candles (candlesticks).
Candles are mainly used to identify reversal points on the chart without resorting to confirmation of horizontal trend lines and only using a previous bar or candle breaks.
Its correct use is subject to a multi-time analysis (multiple temporalities) and a general evaluation of the context proposed by the market in general at the time of each scenario.
Later I will show you all the important details to take into account so that you use Japanese candles in a simple and very effective way.
Do not forget ... Trading in your beginnings based on formations (chartism) and candlestick patterns conjugated with hundreds of tools and technical indicators, constitutes the perfect path to your failure. Before using any strategy or technique I recommend you focus on learning the Price Language, which includes 3 basic things:
Specialists make money every day at the expense of the collective behavior caused by the use of these strategies and techniques. With which you will only manage to lose your capital and your time by putting the cart in front of the horse.
People who do the opposite, at best become,
... Philosophers of Speculation, or indocile Robot Assistants or Expert Advisors.
To make money in any market condition, range or trend, you must use the technical analysis based on the Price Language and combine it with a correct psychological reading of the price. This knowledge can only be acquired through proper education and lots of supervised practice. Like any other career in life.
I hope you've found this guide helpful!
Sup retards, back at it with the DD/macro.submitted by TaxationIsTh3ft to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]
scroll to the rain man stuff after the crayons if you don't care about the why or how.
June 19 $250 SPY puts
May 20 $4 USO puts
SPY under 150 by January next year.
So I was going about my business, trying to not $ROPE myself as my sweet tendies I made during the waterfall of March have evaporated, however, I heard that the fed was adding another $2.3T in monopoly money to the bankers pile specifically to help facilitate these loan programs being rolled out.
In short, they are backing these dumb-ass, zero recourse, federally mandated, loans with printing press money.
But cumguzzler OP, your title is about inflation and guage simp--try, why are you talking about the fed #ban.
Well, when you print money it is an inflationary action in theory. Let me explain.
EDUMACATION TIMEWhat is inflation? Inflation is the sustained increase in the price level in goods and services. Inflation is derived from a general price index, and in the US, from the consumer price index. Knowing that inflation is an outcome, not a set policy is very important. Inflation is a measurement after the fact, much like your technical astrology indicators. (**ps, use order flow in your TA you wizards**)
HOWEVER, the actual act of buying bundles of these loans does not directly impact inflation.
Now what is Gauge symmetry? Gauge symmetry is a function of math and theoretical physics that can be applied to finance models. What a gauge is, is a measurement. Gauge symmetry is when the underlying variable of something changes, however, we do not observe that variable change.
A great example of this is if you and a friend are moving, and your friend is holding a box of tendies. The box is a cube, equal on all sides. If you turn away for a moment and she rotates the cube 90 degrees while you are not looking, and you look back - you would have no idea the cube was rotated. There was a very real change in the position of the cube in relation to space-time. Your friend acted on it. But you didn't measure it, in fact it would be impossible for you to determine if the box was changed at all if you weren't observing it. That movement of the box where you didn't observe it, is called gauge transformation and happens literally more then JPow fucks my mom in quantum physics. The object observably exactly the same even though it is not physically the same. The act of it existing as an observably the same box is gauge symmetry - it is by observation symmetrical.
Why this is important, is that fiat money doesn't have any absolute meaning. The value of $1 is arbitrary. furthermore, Inflation is a Guage symmetry. Inflation has no real impact on the real value of the underlying goods and services, but rather serves as a metric to measure the shift of value across a timeline.
When JPow starts pluggin' your mom along with all these balance sheets, there is a gauge symmetry event happening. The money he is printing is entering the system (gauge transformation), this isn't an issue if all pricing against the USD get shifted equally, however, the market is not accounting for this money because we don't have real-time data on what is being applied where, we only get a slow drip in terms of weekly and monthly reports. WE HAVE OUR EYES CLOSED. This is a gauge symmetry event.
When this happens in real terms, the market becomes dislocated from its real value price. Well how do we know there is a dislocation?
"YoU JuSt SaId tHe UnDeRlYiNg VaLuE iZ AbStRaCkKt HuRr QE aNd MaRkEtS Iz ComPlEx ReAd A TeXtBuK AbOuT FrAcTiOnAl ReSErVe BanKiNg YoU NeRd." - **anyone rationalizing the bull run**
We can look at Forex you fish.
USD lives in a bubble. The Yen is in a bubble, the RMB is in a bubble, and we exchange with each other. the Jap central bank has little effect on the CPI index (cost of goods and services) of the US. If the Yen prints a gazillion dollars, the USD is not effected EXCEPT in its exchange rate. YEN:USD would see a sizeable differential the more Yen is printed and vise-versa.
So NOW instead of JPow getting away with plowing your girlfriend, we can catch the bitch.
Instead of looking at the gauge transformation at face value and then giving up because it is symmetrical output, we can look and see if this gauge symmetry carries over to the foreign exchange market. Well guess what happens when you look at the value of the USD against foreign currencies.
Consistent uncertainty during the fed operations. Meaning the market of banks that partake in FX swaps don't know where to spot the USD. Generally a very very bad thing.
Value of the USD to Euro 2017-2020, notice the slow decline, then the chaos at the end
Above is the value of the USD to Euro, notice the sloping decline. The dollar has been growing weaker since 2017. At the end you see our present issues, lets #ENHANCE
USD to Euro, January 2020 to Present
When you see those spikes, those are days in between Fed action. The value of the US goes up when the fed doesn't print because people aren't spending. Non-spending is a deflationary event and has a direct impact on the CPI. However, each drop when you line up the dates, was a date of Fed spending.
Lets look outside of the Eurozone.
This is the RMB to USD. Yes China manipulates, but look at the end of the graph
China manipulated rates early in 2018 however you can see the steady incline upward towards the of 2018. More specifically, lets look at it since December.
RMB value against USD, January to Now
You Can see the Chinese RMB has been gaining steam since December, even with Chinese production falling off a cliff all through this pandemic.
What this rain man level autism means for the economy.Looking across the board at Forex we can see the USD having a schizo panic attack jumping up and down like me at a mathematics lecture.
But what does all this gauge BDSM and shit have to do with the markets? Well it shows 1 of 3 things are occuring.
It is very important to understand that inflation is only a measurement, and itself does not denote value of real goods and services.
Option 1 of a print fiesta that works (something similar to 1981-82) seems possible. A similar environment and reaction occured in the early 80s when the government brute-forced a bull run using these same offset theorems but in that situation, Volker at the fed had interest rates at 21.5% and had 20% to come down to stimulate the inflationary reaction.
Long term this would just lever up more debt and expanded the real wealth gap over time because we kicked the can down the road another 15 years. If that happens again socioeconomically I don't see capitalism surviving (yeah Im on my high horse get over it). This is the option that many fiscal policymakers and talking heads abide by and the reason why the markets are green. However, it is really just kicking it down the road and expanding real wealth inequality. You think Bernie Sanders is bad, wait until homes cost $3million dollars in Kentucky and AOC Jr comes around.
If we get option 2, we see hyperinflation and we turn into Zimbabwe, which is great, I've always wanted to see Africa. Long term we could push interest rate back to 1980 Volker levels and slowly revalue the US against real value commodities already pegged to the USD like oil. This would be a short term shock but because of international reliance on the USD system, we could slowly de-lever this inflation over 2-3 years and be back to normal capacity although the markets would blow their O-ring. Recession yes, but no long term depression.
If we get option 3, the worst long term option in my opinion, basically any company with any revolver line drawn down when that hits is going to go under, private equity won't touch it with a 20ft stick because cashflows couldn't possibly handle the debt on the end of the lever, and we see mass long term unemployment. The only way out of the spiral of option three is inflationary pressure from the fed+government, but because we are already so far down the rabbit hole at the current moment there's no fucking way we could print another 10 trillion. USD treasuries couldn't handle the guh and we would essentially be functionally forced into a long term (7-10 year) depression because nothing anyone could do would delever the value of the dollar. This would result in the long term collapse of the United States as a world power and would render us like Russia in 1991.
Thank you for coming to my ted talk.
https://preview.redd.it/5mv99mcgf9641.jpg?width=259&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9e0f9b9c0272d594113b2bde74a37c880b665812submitted by AlisaDowdy to Crypto_ICO_Investing [link] [comments]
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|What is your proudest achievement, Mr. Ravenblade?||Looking back, I still remember that first woman I helped. I think of her often, and I cant help but wonder what her life is like now. Does she have kids? A family? A Husband? How would her life have been different if I had not helped her? I wonder this for a lot of people I have helped over the years, but to be honest, I can not help but be proudest of the first time I - scared and worried - told myself "Hey this is not right, I cant just sit back and do nothing". The first time is always the hardest. I had training in different things and was at the time studding martial arts but no real practical street experience; But still I had to try and I thin that theproudest achievement was just being willing to put myself out there and help make the world a better place.|
|Do you have a signature costume or logo?||Its not about me. Yes I have a logo, etc.|
|Yeah, but can't you go into detail about a specific altercation...?||Unlike others in Seattle, I don't brag about my past.|
|A hero is humble.|
|But seriously, can you go into details about anything you've done?||I have filed charges against known criminals, I have helped police apprehend a fugitive, I have protected people from attempted rape, I have assisted in investigations, I have patrolled areas or communities known to be high crime, I have done charity work such as walk for babies, events for TreeHouse for Kids, donated money I raised to missions, fed the homeless, gone to McDonalds and bough 50 cheeseburgers at at time so i could hand them out to the homeless, the list goes on..|
|So you're saying that in Seattle, there are a bunch of superheros running around? Also if you make an AMA about being a superhero and don't "brag" about your past... You're going to have a bad time.||I just don't want to be a dick.|
|Then why post an AMA...?||I was asked to.|
|For the record you got down voted by everyone (not me, I don't down vote) because you did not answer a question instead you talked all about yourself and then said you don't brag; which you did. Interesting AMA, but I wish you would answer questions.||I answered every question asked. If I missed one, I am not aware of it..|
|Awesome, sounds like some legitimate work there, well done sir.||Anybody could do this. I'm not special. I just choose to not let fear stop me.|
|It's reddit, dude. We want you to be a dick.||I think you have the wrong idea about reddit my friend, the people here are kinder than that and care a lot more about the people around them than you think.|
|That is why things like Link to www.reddit.com , among others, exits.|
|Have you ever been bashed or hurt while on the job?||Yes.|
|I had to laugh because for a second, I thought you meant "I just choose to not let fear stop me... from buying cheeseburgers at McDonald's. AWAY!"||The next time you have the cash, order 50$ of 1 dollar cheeseburgers from McDonalds. the look on the face of the person taking your order when you do it inside is great, and the sound of them going "wait, what?" on the drive though is also very funny.|
|Reddit's been taken over by a lot of supervillains lately, Mr. Ravenblade. :(||Most of them are bots tho, so they don't exist out in the real world.|
|Are you concerned that criminals will see that you're tied up answering these questions and use this opportunity to steal the big diamond out of the museum?||No.|
|That was a boring answer :(||Ok so lets spice it up a bit.|
|I'm not worried. The diamond in the museum is a fake, the real one has already moved on to the next location, protected by ninjas that look like kittens.. that all have flame throwers.|
|That raises a lot of disturbing questions about the value of diamonds. Sure, stealing is wrong but is being burned to death by kitten-shaped ninjas an appropriate punishment for taking one? You have become the tyranny you despise, sir.||But, Kitties! Look at the Kitties!|
|Do you feel that you do a better job than the police? What profound impacts have you made since you began doing this?||My father was a Cop and he had a profound effect on my life.|
|I know from personal experience that the cops do what they can, with the limited funding and resources available to them. I have nothing but respect for the good cops out there - the bad apples are a cancer that make the rest look bad - as it takes a lot of guts to get up at 4am, strap a ballistic vest on, put on your gun, and kiss your loved ones before leaving, never knowing if you will see them again.|
|I do what I can, like them. I do not do "better" or "worse". I'm just doing it from a different perspective. And like them, I respect the rule of law.|
|Its hard to say or list all of the good I have done I have been doing this for over 12 years so there has been a lot of people I have helped, homeless I have fed or clothed, foster kids that needed warm coats, babies screened for cancer, etc. I like to think that the good ripples out.|
|May I ask you why you didn't choose to became a police officer?||I saw my father constantly struggle to provide for others on a very low paying salary, despite the good he did every day. Even he wanted to quit and be a judge, because the pay was better.|
|I wanted to be, but I knew I could do more good going in another direction.|
|Uh, judges are lawyers, not former police officers.||Good catch, I wondered if people would get it.|
|Unless your dad was also a lawyer being a judge would not be an option.||He studied very hard, had to move around to do it, etc. But he wanted to take care of people so he did what he needed to.|
|How can i get started doing this? What are some tips you could give me? So i just read your FAQ, whats the difference between you and a neighborhood watch? What prompted you to take up the mask?||You can get started by calling up your local police and setting up a ride along. There are also often citizens academy style classes you can take. This will give you the best intro to law enforcement, as well as put you in the best terms with police.|
|Neighborhood watch is more passive.|
|Do you ever hope there will be a time their be a mask on every corner, and the we will live in a world where heroes arent wanted they are needed. because we'll have some crazy supervillian?||I hope the day we are needed that much never comes.|
|So if i want to be a real superhero and do all the cool ass kicking i should join that other guys group?||No, he just uses camera tricks and actors in the form of his extended family an friends to make you think that.|
|Dude, you are a vigilante, might as well admit it.||Define "vigilante". Clearly you and I have a different definition of it. I don't go all Judge Dredd on people (nobody should) and that is what I see a vigilante.|
|Fuck this shit imma start my own group and just be kick ass no videos no names just ass kicking.||Thats called a gang... I doubt that would be productive.|
|Your definition of vigilante is irrelevant. Many criminals don't consider themselves as criminals either. Their opinion on the matter is also not relevant.||I don't punish people, as required by the definition.. as such, I am not a vigilante. The cops, the law, etc, punishes them.|
|The textbook definition of vigilante is "vigilante is a private individual (or (pl.) group of individuals) who presumes to carry out extralegal punishment in defiance of existing law."||"vigilante is a private individual (or (pl.) group of individuals) who presumes to carry out extralegal punishment in defiance of existing law."|
|Were you in that documentary on real life superheroes? The name evades me but I'm sure you know what I'm talking about. If you weren't why not?||The documentary was very political in the RLSH community, and I was not in it because I had some philosophical differences with some of the people who are in it. Namely, I dint like the commercialization of the RLSH altruistic spirit that it represented.|
|question, how often do you get laid?||Until recently I was in a very long term relationship; While in that relationship I was 100% monogamous, then it ended because she was not somebody I could trust. The relationship was good however; It also shielded me from what we in the RLSH community call call "Cape Chasers", women who get involved in the RLSH community simply to find "a good guy" or just to get banged by a guy in a cape. I'm not kidding, these women exist and its a real problem as they often try to start drama or get guys in the community fighting over them.|
|So every occupation involving capes aparently has groupies.||I guess groupies is a good word for it, but doesn't really fit as more often than not the women enjoy the attention enough to start doing the RLSH thing and sometimes they stay even after the relationship that got them into it ends.|
|What kind of personal safety equipment do you wear - bullet proof vest or other body armor perhaps?||Bullet Proof Armor, bought off the shelf as well as some custom made stuff.|
|In Seattle a lot of people who are ignorant or simply new to the scene like to brag about their Kevlar stuff; But to me any time I see people brag about that sort of thing I laugh and cry a little, because it only shows they are ignorant about Kevlar in general and have not made the effort to educate themselves, since Kevlar loses its protection when it gets wet.. and we have a lot of rain in the area.|
|Have you ever met Cincinnati's "Shadow Hare"? Have you ever gotten hurt? Does anyone ever try to be a "Super Villain"?||Shadow Hare is a political topic in RLSH circles; I'm not sure of the exact details and I was not there so I cant really speak on it with authoritativeness.|
|Political topic? Could you explain what you know/what you mean when you say "Political Topic" (saw it mentioned below) out of curiosity? I understand you weren't there, just wondering on the gist of it.||It was a polarizing event in RLSH history. Anytime you have "sides" the community suffers, I would rather focus on the things I know about and can speak authoritatively about.|
|What was polarizing about it? what is it?||I'm not sure of the details, as I tried to stay as far away from it as possible at the time. I understood that he injured himself or something, and it created drama i wanted no part of.|
|How do you make a living? I don't think you would accept money for your hero services. (I am guessing you run your own business? If so, may I ask what it is?)||No true RLSH would accept money for doing it. I will not say what it is - I said ask em anything, not I will tell you anything - as it would endanger other people.|
|Also, have you been shot or stabbed? or was there an attempt? Or have you always been able to diffuse the situation before it went that far.||Yes. Stabbed and Shot. And its not a cool thing; its a failure on my part to negotiate or otherwise handle the situation without the need for violence.|
|Fair enough, I was just curious as it probably requires a lot of time to go out and be a RLSH, a normal 9-5 job would not make that easy.||I do a lot of night stuff. One thing about being the boss, is nobody cares if you get in late in the mornings.|
|What is your relationship with law enforcement? Do they know/trust you, or do they resent the vigilante act?||I consider my relationship with law enforcement to be one based on respect. Every time I interact with them, I give them the respect they deserve and they treat me with more than the amount of respect I feel entitled to. I'm not a vigilante, so that's not a problem.|
|Do you videotape your actions to act as evidence? Maybe a GoPro camera?||In WA state we have laws about recording that have to be followed. I have a press pass among other things, so that helps, but in the end the law needs to be respected.|
|Would you say that you're the weirdo Seattle needs, or more the weirdo Seattle deserves?||I think I'm the guy Seattle needed; now the community has grown since I was the only RLSH in the area. I see myself as jump starting the movement locally since I was at one time the only one, but in the end my goal is to mentor and provide my experiences, all the while doing what I do best.|
|Do you know Phoenix Jones?||He and I don't get along; He actually threatened to kill innocent people when I spoke out against his violent actions when he first started. I don't consider him to be a RLSH, and that was why he had to start his own little RCSH thing, because nobody wanted him in the community.|
|So you said you shouldn't pepper spray people, then he said he would murder innocents?||In my opinion he has an issue with control.|
|It follows this that He likes to make people submit to him, and gets scared when it looks like he doesn't control the situation. I personally believe it stems from his childhood and the sense of abandonment he got from some of the things that happened to him - and for this , I truly pity him - but the end result is that when he doesn't have control over people (like he doesn't have control over me, for example when I am speaking out against him) he gets angry and makes threats in an attempt to control them that way, thought the people they love or otherwise by using them or their safety as a hostage of sorts.|
|This sort of action to me is something only an evil person would do.. and that's why I don't trust him or think of him as a hero at all.|
|On Tuesday, the 1st of May 2012, Phoenix Jones and crew allegedly pepper sprayed members of the Occupy movements's May Day demonstrators in downtown Seattle.. In an interview on the Bob Rivers Show on 2nd May, Phoenix Jones asserted that, while undercover with the protesters, several of them revealed to him a plot to bomb the city courthouse. Damn that's nuts. Do you have any stories like that?!||After I lost a female friend in 9/11, I looked into military service. Does that count?|
|But he does have a pretty cool suit, I bet it is expensive.||Its rubber and it was pretty cheap from what understand. The only thing custom about it that I know of is the stuff he cut from it around the face.|
|Dragonskin is pretty expensive, at least 5 grand.||What he has is not Dragonskin, last I checked. I'm sure he wants to tell people it is, but my understanding is he cant legally get it due to his criminal records, so if it is, that's just another thing for the police to bust him for.|
|Criminal records?||In WA anybody with a record is not allowed to own ballistics gear. Doing so will only get you in more trouble, last I checked the law.|
|Do people know your irl identity?||I'm very open with my RL identity to the police and several people have tried to unmask me to them, resulting in a lot of laughter.|
|Have any criminals you tried apprehending laugh when they saw you (considering the out of placeness of superheros...)? If so what did you do?||I think it should be a prerequisite that people have a good relationship with the police, etc to do this work. If the police don't like you, you are going to have a hard time.|
|Do you have to use a particular set of skills (i.e martial arts) to take down criminals? Have you had to use it on any thugs? Did you come out victorious?||I only use my martial arts skills in self defense; A real hero ends a fight, he doesn't start it.|
|Do you have any super powers? Or are you like batman. Or sherlock holmes?||I got into business because I saw that Ironman and Batman were the ones funding all the other heroes..|
|I've read every reply in this thread. Can you please explain how humbleness and bragging about media exposure and having a facebook fan page go hand in hand? I'd also love to hear why you think you get more respect and inspire more people by wearing a ridiculous costume?||I'm put in a difficult position; I want to promote humbleness, by using marketing skills to promote good values as if they are a product, with the goal that if people "buy" into the idea that people should be excellent to other it will promote positive change in the world. Yet these very things require me to put myself out there.|
|You actually might inspire people if you dropped the costume act. If you wore all black and a ski mask, you'd look badass versus people thinking you are late for filming a power rangers episode.||Its a struggle either way, and I welcome any feedback or ideas you have.|
|I get that but just to let you know it doesn't come off that way. The whole "persona" just screams look at me look at me.||Because if I do it with just my face exposed to the world, people will say "oh, he is just doing it for the social credibility", or worse, they could think I am a great guy and somehow above them socially.. and that would make it more difficult for others to be inspired. That is exactly what I DO NOT WANT. The less personal attention/social reward I get for my heroic deeds, the people I help, etc, the better.|
|You obviously are doing good in what you do but the reaction is indifference or laughter because of this persona you have. Can you please explain why you think you are taken more seriously by wearing a costume, having a ridiculous superhero name versus just wearing normal clothes and doing the same thing?||Apple uses shadows in its ads for a reason: to inspire people into thinking "that could be me"/. The mask is the same thing, basically.|
|What kind of gadgets do you use?||I go into this a little on the TV spots I have done, but a lot of the tools I use are now standard fare as everybody seems to have copied me. Bear Mace, Extendable Stun Batons, Stun Devices of multiple kinds, gear for dealing with the cold, handout supplies, ballistic vests, etc.|
|How do the police permit you to carry this stuff and use it? Isn't it illegal?||Not illegal at all.|
|As I said in a video I did, the important thing in Seattle limits is to make sure you have no concealed weapons over 6 feet in length (yes, its an actual law) and stay away from projectile weapons. I also stay away from bladed weapons just to be safe; I don't need them to protect myself and I would hate for somebody else to get hurt by mistake.|
|Do you find it hard to move in costume and all the stuff you hold? I imagine it would be pretty hard.||Uniform is designed to not create issue.|
|What do you think about the "war on drugs?"||I think more data is needed on drugs, and being as I have no experience with any sort of drug that my doctor did not prescribe me, I'm not an authority on it either way. I do know however that they are illegal, so society clearly expects me to stay away from them.|
|Also, the obvious question: If you could have any super power, what would it be?||Super Power? Given my science education, I wouldn't mind being able to manipulate the Fundamental Interaction of matter at will. Magneto could only control one of them, after all.|
|People who use drugs, who aren't junkies or 16 yearolds are often pretty private about their habit, its not something they're going to bring up in general conversation.||Exactly.|
|People often don't bring up things they are ashamed of.|
|I'm pretty sure Charlie Sheen makes more than 100k a year and he's a coc addict.||Maybe I should edit that to say "outside of media"|
|Are you familiar with Superman Blue? As I understand it from the toy box, he had power over the entire electromagnetic spectrum, which I think means that he could even fuck up shit that we don't even see.||There are multiple versions of the Blue Superman; Read this Link to en.wikipedia.org|
|I wouldn't say all are ashamed, its like someone who enjoys a brand of beer, it doesn't become an adopted aspect of their lifestyle like stoners seem to portray, its just something they do and enjoy.||My only experience with people who are open about it has been negative.|
|It's not statistical if it's an anecdote. According to this study, the only people that abuse drugs MORE than those making > $65,000 are those making below poverty.||Drugs are illegal, its not up to me, and the fact is it doesn't matter what I think of them because they are still illegal no-matter what I think. I don't use them, I'm not an authority on them, and I honestly don't care for them.|
|Do you have like a social disorder? Some of your responses are a little tense bud, loosen up. It's the Internet.||I'm at work. I may be the boss but I still have to work, bro.|
|So you're saying that Ebony is automatically subservient to ivory?||No.|
|Do you have a job?||Yes.|
|I own a company.|
|You consider yourself a superhero, so yeah, delusions of grandeur, among other things, is self-evident.||Ok for your benefit, I'm going to drop the persona for a single post and lay some truth down on you. People don't care about the world. That is why the world is so fucked up. Nobody cares about their fellow man, communities can not depend on the people to take care of themselves, men in general have become pussies who no longer protect their part of the world, and in general, most people are greedy and selfish. To that end, most people just want to be entertained; So the result of this is the people who want to do good, must do so while also being entertainers. The end result of this is that most of the RLSH you see, while going out into the world and doing the good they can, have to go the persona/superhero thing.|
|People with mental disorders rarely see themselves that way.|
|Have you considered any post secondary education? I think "Dr. RavenBlade" would strike fear into the hearts of criminals!||)|
|Thoughts?||Yes I am a RLSH - have been for over a 10 years - but I don't really see the so called "Villains" like Rex as "bad" myself; I think the "community" of RLSH really needs them. If anything, we need more of them. They serve to deflate the egos of people who take themselves far too seriously, the sort of subgroup in the RLSH community that all too often thinks too much of themselves when they should be humble role models.|
|Its also clear this guy has help from somebody who knows a little something about media, and has thrown in some humor. This should do well given that Peter T sold out teh RLSH community when he decided to support PJ just to help his career. So yes, I support Rex, just as I supported Tiny Terror, Agent Null, and all the other so called "RLSV" even though technically as a RLSH I guess I'm supposed to hate them or something, because I know that ultimately, good things will come out of it.|
|I am looking forward to how this unfolds.|
|I did not expect the response that you gave but i am glad that you gave it. Thank you for being a person of a sound and rational mind.||You are welcome. I only hope as the community grows more people will have a use for rational logic.|
|You may or may not be corrupt, but you're setting a precedent -- whether you admit it or not, your existence is inspiration for others, regardless of what you want. You're certainly not advocating for a vigilante-focused crime response system, are you? You certainly don't think the police are unnecessary, and that you and your team should handle crime, do you?||Respectfully, You are wrong about me being a Vigilante or the idea of me trying to inspire others to be one. The law is explicit in that it allows what I do, in the way that I do it. If you do not like it the only think you can do is vote to get rid of peoples right to defend themselves... but i don't think you will be very successful. But for every Jones there are dozens of others who honestly want to do good, use their logic and reason and not further their failed careers, and in the end the world is better place for it.|
|Do you fit any of the common themes for many superheros? (newspapers, millionare, dead parents, etc.)||Yup.|
|Broken Home, Dead Relatives, Misc Training, interested in business, among others.|
|Covert government training? What does this mean? It just seems so vauge... I am also hoping you don't say "I can't talk about that" because then you wouldn't even mention it.||It says "Misc Training"... ;)|
|It also says "7 hours ago*" but I'll leave that one alone. Don't suppose you'll expound on 'misc training'? Either way thank you for letting me (and I am sure others) know about a fascinating subculture I was otherwise unaware of. One last question, what's the story or reason behind the name?||It was given to me by a loved one before she died in a car wreck due to a drunk driver.|
|Do you have a nemesis?||Evil.|
|Not "RLSV" Evil. These people are much needed critics and I think help the RLSH community in the long run. No, I consider people who rape, kill, or otherwise hurt kids to be my biggest enemy. I hate pedophiles.|
|Would you win in a fight against 'Kick Ass'?||Why would we fight?|
|Hypothetical situation obviously, as a comparison of abilities.||So hypothetically, say he and I spared. As friends.|
|I'm much bigger than he is. I have more muscle, and tactical training he lacks. So its safe to say he and I are not even in the same weight class.|
|To be honest I would be worried about hurting him, so I would probably let him test himself and be on the defensive until I knew he could handle things or he got a good shot in. I would probably still win, but whats the point of letting a friend lose without teaching him something?|
|All valid points. Tactical training you say?||)|
|Have you seen the HBO documentary "superheroes"? thoughts? do you know any of the superheroes in it? do you appreciate their work?||This is a duplicate of the same question above :)|
|Do you have another job? How would I start doing this???||I own a company.|
|You start by doing what I said in FAQ, and by checking with your local police force for a ride along.|
|I just got back from Seattle. Can you do something about all the hipsters and panhandlers?||Are you asking me to beat up on homeless people?|
|Maybe you could hire the homeless people to beat up the hipsters?||People that are homeless typically don't have that kind of work ethic, not when so many options exist for them to no longer be homeless.|
|Speaking from experience working with the homeless adults are often homeless because they want to be, or because they have mental disabilities that keep them from being able to take advantage of the options available. Children are often homeless due to no fault of their own, or because they ran away from a worse situation, and now they don't trust anybody.|
|The only time I see you guys (or at least phoenix jones) is posing with girls stumbling out of the clubs. How do you feel that's working on your image to be taken legitimately?||I think that sort of thing is actively doing damage to the reputation of the community, especially when he has stated publicly that his girlfriend - not wife, so I can only assume based on his public statements that he doesn't have the balls to marry her despite saying publicly he has a kid with her - expects him to be faithful like the hero he claims to be.|
|I don't mind if he's being faithful or not, I just think that he and others look less legit when they're just doing photo ops for people and the news.||Both issues apply.|
|How can he call himself a hero if he is acting in a way that even LOOKS unfaithful to his significant other?|
|Did you not get arrested recently? I thought I saw a video online where you were the one starting shit. Quick edit: Maybe not, but is this a bro of yours?||No I am not a "bro" with that guy. Unlike him, I do not have a criminal record. I don't consider him to even be a RLSH.|
|Can you do multivariate calculus?||Thats a large branch of study, but I have found it most useful in my ForEx and stock market efforts.|
Identifying and describing action-reaction force pairs is a simple matter of identifying the two interacting objects and making two statements describing who is pushing on whom and in what direction. For example, consider the interaction between a baseball bat and a baseball. The baseball forces the bat to the left; the bat forces the ball to the right. Together, these two forces exerted upon ... Reaction lines are drawn parallel to the reference line and at equal distances from each other using the distance between the action line and the reference line as the basic measure. I mainly use the action-reaction methods to find crossings with other price projection techniques to get an indication on the time axis when a target could be reached. The One: Price Action and Reaction Last Post ; 1 133 134 Page 135 136 137 139; 1 Page 135 139 ; Post # 2,681; Quote; Apr 17, 2020 1:42pm Apr 17, 2020 1:42pm jarfx05. Joined Sep 2014 Status: FF is a waste of time 1,318 Posts. CJ H4. Attached Image (click to enlarge) if you're doing we all have results with all. 1. Post # 2,682; Quote; May 13, 2020 10:42am May 13, 2020 10:42am eaglestar ... Live Forex Analysis, Currency Rates, Economic Calendar, Technical Forecast, Fundamental News, Free Trading Signals. Best. USD Dollar, EUR Euro, JPY Yen, GBP Pound ... Posted by forextradermelvin May 27, 2020 Posted in Forex Info, Market Structure, Tutorials Tags: action reaction, forex trading, gaps, trend lines I want to demonstrate how there are different ways to use trend-lines and that the market follows the action-reaction rule where for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction – Newton’s third law. Over the course of the past two decades, the forex market has grown into the world’s largest financial venue. In fact, according to the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) Triennial Survey ... Share ideas, debate tactics, and swap war stories with forex traders from around the world. This strong reaction indicates that there was strong support or resistance in the area. One big reaction is enough but two or more strong reactions are even better. This way you can be sure there was a really strong support or resistance area. After spotting such a strong area, you need to wait for the price to go past it. You want to see this strong support or resistance breached. Even though ... Price Action is a forex trading system based on the Breakout channel, Breakout support and resistance lines and the breakout Trend lines. This price action forex trading system may confuse newbies a bit but once you fully understand how it works, then it becomes are really powerful forex trading system. Here is the rationale behind this strategy. Sometimes you will see market move in a downtrend and break the support levels and it goes down for a while only to return back up to the support levels that was just broken. Guess what ...
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Veteran futures trader and best-selling author John Crane will show how he combines his highly acclaimed "Action/Reaction" market timing methods with a selective set of Elliott Wave and Fibonacci ... Forex trading strategies for a beginner.l Price Action Series II This videos of pound sterling truly signifies the two possibilities in which in one of them price is reacting before supply and the ... How to analyze the Forex market with a consistent approach in order to achieve consistent results. Follow John Crane as he uses Market Timing Intelligence and Action/Reaction trading to generate high probability buy/sell signals in the Crude oil futures. The most important element of a ... My Fx Broker: https://my.myfxchoice.com/registration/?ib=107287 Subscribe to my music youtube channel! Big thanks http://youtube.com/vx3k All teaching I do i... Round 2 everyone! Here are the trades from today. Ended up 5-2, a good day in my books. There were many double tops today, which just might be my favorite pattern. Make sure to use them in your ... 95% Winning Forex Trading Formula ... Naked Price Action Trading Explained - Duration: 10:23. Tradeciety.com 28,680 views. 10:23. How To Exit A Losing Trade The Right Way - Duration: 11:59 ...